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Stats Perform’s Fantasy Football Outliers: Week 10

By: Gabe Schmittlein

The game of football giveth and taketh away.

In Week 10, we’ll likely get to witness the exciting returns of Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan. At the same time, receivers around the league are ailing with T.Y. Hilton and Adam Thielen out this week, and DeSean Jackson and Preston Williams sidelined for the rest of the season.

These injury concerns bring fantasy questions across the league. Who steps into Hilton’s shoes for the Indianapolis Colts? How much of a boost do the Kansas City Chiefs receivers get with Mahomes back?

Stats Perform’s Fantasy Hot or Not video and Week 10 projections are here to help you pick through these dilemmas, and others.

We’ve pinpointed players at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end in a half PPR-scoring format that we project are either higher or lower than other experts’ rankings. For the consensus rankings, we’re using FantasyPros, which aggregates major fantasy sites’ picks, to compare our projections with others in the industry. Half PPR grants a half-point for a reception, a nice blend between standard scoring and full PPR leagues.

Here are Stats Perform’s top undervalued and overvalued players for this weekend:

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) looks to pass during the first quarter against the New York Giants on Monday, Nov. 4, 2019, in East Rutherford, N.J.

Quarterback – Undervalued:

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Stats Perform Ranking: 3

FantasyPros Ranking: 7

Stats Perform’s ProjectionComp.-Att./RushesYardsTDs-INTs/Touchdowns
Passing25-373071.5-0.6
Rushing3.5250.3

 

Like many of the other top fantasy quarterbacks, Prescott’s bottom-line value is boosted by his running ability. He’s averaging 6.5 yards on 3.4 carries per game. Even more important, he’s tied for fourth among quarterbacks with three rushing touchdowns.

This baseline value comes in addition to Prescott’s passing output, which should be significant in Week 10. We’re projecting a high-scoring contest between two teams ranked in top-10 in touchdowns per game, and Prescott should play a big part in that. Teams have attacked the Minnesota Vikings through the air, with 36.3 opposing pass attempts per game (10th most in the league) and just 22.1 opposing runs per game (7th fewest in the league).

Quarterback – Overvalued:

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

Stats Perform Ranking: 21

FantasyPros Ranking: 8

Stats Perform’s ProjectionComp.-Att./RushesYardsTDs-INTs/Touchdowns
Passing19-292261.3-0.8
Rushing4.0230.1

 

The San Francisco 49ers average the most runs in the league at 37.9 rushing attempts per game and allow the fewest passes at just 28.3 per game. Those stats don’t bode well for any opposing quarterback, even one as talented as Wilson.

The 49ers offense could dominate time of possession, while the Seahawks may have to turn to Chris Carson and their running attack to move the ball. Wilson and his entire wide receiver corps are looking like middling fantasy options with this awful Week 10 matchup.

Indianapolis Colts running back Marlon Mack (25) runs the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half Sunday, Nov. 3, 2019, in Pittsburgh.

Running Back – Undervalued:

Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts

Stats Perform Ranking: 5

FantasyPros Ranking: 9

Stats Perform’s ProjectionCarries/CatchesYardsTouchdowns
Rushing21.51020.7
Receiving2.0150.0

 

Stats Perform’s projections have loved Mack all year because of his steady 20-carry workload behind a dominant offensive line. We especially love him this week against a Miami Dolphins run defense that is allowing 150.8 yards per game (2nd most in the league) on 4.75 per carry.

If the Colts get out to an early lead, expect an extremely heavy dose of Mack. That certainly bodes well for fantasy owners.

Running Back – Overvalued:

Frank Gore, Buffalo Bills

Stats Perform Ranking: 41

FantasyPros Ranking: 33

Stats Perform’s ProjectionCarries/CatchesYardsTouchdowns
Rushing8.4350.1
Receiving0.880.0

 

Gore seemed to be a reliable fantasy workhorse until Week 9, when rookie Devin Singletary broke out for the Bills. Singletary rushed 20 times for 95 yards and a touchdown, while Gore was limited to just 15 yards on 11 carries. That could spell the end of Gore’s fantasy relevance after he had already been trending downward in carries and hadn’t recorded a touchdown since Week 3.

Even in a great matchup against a Cleveland Browns’ defense allowing 141.3 rush yards per game (3rd most in the league), we’re expecting a subdued performance for Gore due to low usage.

New York Jets wide receiver Jamison Crowder (82) runs the ball in for a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins during the first half Sunday, Nov. 3, 2019, in Miami Gardens, Fla.

Wide Receiver – Undervalued:

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets

Stats Perform Ranking: 12

FantasyPros Ranking: 32

Stats Perform’s ProjectionCatchesYardsTouchdowns
Receiving6.7640.4

 

We’ve consistently found that passing offenses going against the New York Giants have been undervalued. This week, Crowder and the rest of the Jets passing attack is projected to feast on a New York defense allowing 280.6 receiving yards and 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game.

Crowder could rack up a significant portion of that production, especially if Jets tight end Chris Herndon is out. Crowder hopes to continue playing well after finishing with eight catches, 83 yards and a touchdown in Week 9.

Wide Receiver – Overvalued:

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns

Stats Perform Ranking: 25

FantasyPros Ranking: 14

Stats Perform’s ProjectionCatchesYardsTouchdowns
Receiving4.8620.4

 

It’s no secret that OBJ has struggled from a fantasy perspective in his first season with the Browns, and things don’t seem to be changing any time soon. He had five catches in each of the past two weeks, hasn’t had a touchdown since Week 2 and matched a season low with six targets in Week 9.

Now, he gets a tough matchup against cornerback Tre’Davious White and the Bills’ secondary. Buffalo allows just 200.8 receiving yards per game (3rd in the league) on 10.0 yards per reception (3rd). We’re projecting another low-usage, low-output week for OBJ.

Indianapolis Colts tight end Jack Doyle (84) runs during the first half against the Houston Texans, Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019, in Indianapolis.

Tight End – Undervalued:

Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts

Stats Perform Ranking: 6

FantasyPros Ranking: 11

Stats Perform’s ProjectionCatchesYardsTouchdowns
Receiving4.3410.3

 

Hilton and Parris Campbell are out for the Colts, leaving Doyle, Eric Ebron and Zach Pascal as the only established receiving options against the Dolphins.

That’s good news for Doyle’s fantasy outlook, and he should get more than his season average of 4.3 targets in this great matchup. The cherry on top for fantasy owners would be a Doyle touchdown, which could happen against a Miami defense that is allowing 2.4 passing touchdowns per game.

Tight End – Overvalued:

O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Stats Perform Ranking: 26

FantasyPros Ranking: 15

Stats Perform’s ProjectionCatchesYardsTouchdowns
Receiving1.7260.1

 

On paper, Howard seems like a decent start in his return from injury. He should be the clear No. 1 option for a group that has done very little in his stead. He also gets a great matchup against an Arizona Cardinals defense that is giving up a touchdown per game to tight ends, to go along with 7.1 receptions and 90.0 yards per game.

However, even when he was healthy, Howard wasn’t a big part of the Buccaneers offense. He averaged just three targets before his injury while Chris Godwin and Mike Evans earned most of the attention. Our projections don’t expect that to change despite the great matchup.