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Stats Perform’s Fantasy Football Outliers: Week 11

By: Gabe Schmittlein

A high-octane matchup in Baltimore steals the fantasy football headlines in Week 11.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens welcome Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans to town in a game that has legitimate playoff implications – in addition to certain fantasy ramifications. Jackson and Watson are two of the league’s top MVP candidates and have carried many-a-fantasy team this season, but fantasy owners will also be watching the supporting casts carefully.

Mark Ingram and Marquise Brown look to continue strong seasons for the Ravens, while DeAndre Hopkins and the Texans’ dangerous platoon of tight ends will be trying to capitalize on late-season fantasy surges.

Elsewhere around the league, we get a Super Bowl LII rematch in Philadelphia, as the Philadelphia Eagles try to figure out the New England Patriots’ dominant defense with both teams coming off a bye week. We also get the return of Nick Foles to the Jacksonville Jaguars in a must-win game (for both teams) against the Indianapolis Colts, and a Sunday night matchup between two pre-season Super Bowl favorites – the Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears – that desperately need wins to stay in playoff contention.

Stats Perform has pinpointed players at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end in a half PPR-scoring format that we project are either higher or lower than other experts’ rankings. For the consensus rankings, we’re using FantasyPros, which aggregates major fantasy sites’ picks, to compare our projections with others in the industry. Half PPR grants a half-point for a reception, a nice blend between standard scoring and full PPR leagues.

Here are Stats Perform’s top undervalued and overvalued players for this weekend:

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) prepares to throw the ball as he is pressured by Minnesota Vikings free safety Harrison Smith (22) in Arlington, Texas, Sunday, Nov. 10, 2019.

 

Quarterback – Undervalued:

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Stats Perform Ranking: 1

FantasyPros Ranking: 4

Stats Perform’s ProjectionComp.-Att./RushesYardsTDs-INTs/Touchdowns
Passing26-373271.9-0.9
Rushing4.3290.2

 

After a couple years of middling fantasy output and low upside, Prescott has shined in 2019. In Kellen Moore’s open offense, Prescott is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt, up from 7.4 in ’18 and 6.8 in ’17. He’s shed the label of a short-yardage passer, and that’s great news for fantasy owners.

This week, Prescott goes up against a Detroit Lions defense that is tied for 29th in the league, allowing 2.9 passing plays per game of 25 yards or more. The Lions have also allowed 19 passing touchdowns. Expect big plays and ample touchdown opportunities for Prescott and the rest of the potent Cowboys offense.

Quarterback – Overvalued:

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Stats Perform Ranking: 22

FantasyPros Ranking: 14

Stats Perform’s ProjectionComp.-Att./RushesYardsTDs-INTs/Touchdowns
Passing22-342181.1-1.0
Rushing4.5290.1

 

We continue to dislike any quarterback going against the San Francisco 49ers’ historic defense – Murray is no exception. He actually performed admirably last time the Cardinals and the 49ers met, throwing for 241 yards and two touchdowns. But 88 of those yards (and one of those touchdowns) came on a single mid-range pass to Andy Isabella where the shifty receiver did most of the work.

Everybody knows the 49ers have one of the top pass defenses in the league. For opposing fantasy quarterbacks, they also present a tough matchup because of how well their offense retains the ball. The 49ers lead the league with 36.7 rushing attempts per game and lead the league in time of possession per 60 minutes as well. Lack of opportunities and a matchup against an elite pass defense are a bad formula for Murray to succeed in Week 11.

Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary (26) rushes during the first half against the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, Nov. 10, 2019, in Cleveland.

 

Running Back – Undervalued:

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills

Stats Perform Ranking: 11

FantasyPros Ranking: 16

Stats Perform’s ProjectionCarries/CatchesYardsTouchdowns
Rushing12.8610.4
Receiving2.9250.1

 

The Bills leaned on Josh Allen and the passing game in Week 10, so Singletary’s opportunities were limited. Still, we were able to see the development of a backfield partnership between Singletary and Frank Gore that is increasingly shifting in Singletary’s favor. He rushed eight times for 42 yards – compared to Gore’s five carries for 12 yards – and was also a factor in the passing game, with three receptions on six targets.

This week, Singletary gets a great matchup against a Miami Dolphins defense that is allowing 4.7 yards per carry (25th in the league) and 146.1 yards per game (30th). We’re expecting a breakout week for Singletary given the matchup and his recent usage.

Running Back – Overvalued:

Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Stats Perform Ranking: 41

FantasyPros Ranking: 22

Stats Perform’s ProjectionCarries/CatchesYardsTouchdowns
Rushing8.3330.1
Receiving1.9150.0

 

Jones’ fantasy outlook runs opposite to Singletary’s as he still seems married in a true time-share with Peyton Barber. Each of the Tampa Bay running backs had 11 carries in Week 10, which surely disappointed fantasy owners who may have been expecting a higher usage for Jones – especially considering his big performance in Week 9.

To make matters worse, Jones faces one of the top run defenses in the league – the Saints. They’re allowing just 90.8 yards per game (tied for 5th in the league) on just 21.9 attempts (4th). Jones seems destined for a down week, which will only be compounded if he splits carries with Barber again.

Carolina Panthers’ D.J. Moore gets past Green Bay Packers’ Jaire Alexander during the first half Sunday, Nov. 10, 2019, in Green Bay, Wis.

 

Wide Receiver – Undervalued:

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers

Stats Perform Ranking: 2

FantasyPros Ranking: 10

Stats Perform’s ProjectionCatchesYardsTouchdowns
Receiving6.8950.5

 

Moore gets a great matchup in Week 10 against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has been gouged by wide receivers. Opposing receivers are totaling 13.7 receptions for 188.1 yards per game, and have racked up 12 touchdowns as well.

At the same time, the Falcons are actually fairly effective at covering running backs and tight ends, which could mean that potential touches for Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen could be headed the way of Moore. Moore’s fantasy value is also boosted by the fact that he and fellow wideout Curtis Samuel play nearly every snap and are the only two productive receivers on the roster.

Wide Receiver – Overvalued:

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans

Stats Perform Ranking: 15

FantasyPros Ranking: 3

Stats Perform’s ProjectionCatchesYardsTouchdowns
Receiving6.4680.6

 

Of course, sitting Hopkins won’t be an option for many fantasy owners. Still, we are projecting a down week as he has a difficult matchup against the Ravens in Week 11.

The Ravens have an effective – if not stifling – pass defense and thrive in ball possession offensively. They’re second in the league in runs per game (35.8) and offensive touches (55.4), which is likely to lead in fewer opportunities for the Texans offense. Even when Houston does get the ball, we expect to see a lot of Jordan Aikins, Darren Fells, and Duke Johnson in the passing game.

New York Giants free safety Jabrill Peppers (21) tackles Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten (82) during the first quarter Monday, Nov. 4, 2019, in East Rutherford, N.J.

 

Tight End – Undervalued:

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

Stats Perform Ranking: 5

FantasyPros Ranking: 16

Stats Perform’s ProjectionCatchesYardsTouchdowns
Receiving4.3500.2

 

Our projections have been high on Witten all season. His production has been consistent – he’s averaging 5.0 targets per game but has never dipped below four – and sometimes that’s all you can ask for in the weak tight end position.

If fantasy owners were to ask for something more from Witten, it would be a touchdown. Well this week, he matches up against a Lions defense that has allowed a touchdown to tight ends in four straight weeks.

Tight End – Overvalued:

Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers

Stats Perform Ranking: 7

FantasyPros Ranking: 2

Stats Perform’s ProjectionCatchesYardsTouchdowns
Receiving4.9570.4

 

Henry is still a decent start in Week 11, especially with how weak the tight end options are right now. We project Henry to perform well on receptions and yards against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has allowed 58.9 yards per game to tight ends.

Still, we’re low on Henry because we don’t expect him to get into the end zone, and for a fantasy tight end that can make all the difference. The Chiefs have only allowed three touchdowns to tight ends, and Henry has only scored three – albeit in just six games.

Advanced analytics and data analysis provided by Stats Perform’s Kyle Cunningham-Rhoads