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Stats Perform’s Fantasy Football Outliers: Week 16

By: Stats Perform

It’s been a long season. You’ve kept plugging away, focused on getting your team better and now you find yourself in your league’s fantasy football championship game.

Or maybe the third-place game, or… toilet-bowl title game. Wherever you’ve landed this weekend, it hasn’t been a true against-all-odds story because you’ve had Stats Perform’s projections helping you make the right decisions both this fantasy season and in daily fantasy plays along the way.

We’ve pinpointed players at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end in a half PPR-scoring format that we project are either higher or lower than other experts’ rankings. Half PPR grants a half-point for a reception, a nice blend between standard scoring and full PPR.

For the consensus rankings, we’re using FantasyPros, which aggregates major fantasy sites’ picks, to compare our projections with others in the industry. Without further ado, Stats Perform wishes you luck in your fantasy finale as we present our top undervalued and overvalued players of Week 16:

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew during the second half in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 15, 2019.

Quarterback – Undervalued:

Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars (DK $5,500, FD $6,800)

Stats Perform Ranking: 12

FantasyPros Ranking:18

ProjectionComp.-Att./CarriesYardsTDs-INTs/TDs
Passing30-453171.4-0.8
Rushing3.2180.1

 

For those who find themselves in a bind at quarterback, consider streaming Minshew against the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta has been playing at a fast pace of late and could jump out to an early lead, which bodes well for Minshew opportunities through the air. Minshew threw the ball 47 times in a 26-3 loss to the Houston Texans in Week 9 and 37 times in a 45-10 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 14.

The Falcons have given up 25 passing touchdowns and rank 23rd in the league in pass defense, allowing 253.7 yards per game. Minshew provides additional value with his legs as he’s run for 176 yards on 34 carries over his last six games. Top target D.J. Chark, who needs just 44 yards to reach 1,000 on the season, could return after missing one game with an ankle injury.

Quarterback – Overvalued:

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (DK $6,100, FD $7,700)

Stats Perform Ranking: 17

FantasyPros Ranking: 10

ProjectionComp.-Att./CarriesYardsTDs-INTs/TDs
Passing26-402311.4-0.9
Rushing4.8300.2

 

Murray’s value figures to take a significant hit as he faces the slow-moving, ball-control offense of the Seattle Seahawks. We project this contest goes very much like the Los Angeles Rams-Cardinals matchup a couple of weeks ago when the Rams held the ball for almost 35 minutes and rushed for 132 yards in a 34-7 win. Murray completed 19 of 34 passes for 163 yards with no scores and an interception.

Making matters worse for Murray owners, the Cardinals could try to get the ground game going again after Kenyan Drake rushed for 137 yards and four touchdowns on 22 carries in last week’s 38-24 win over the Cleveland Browns. Murray, however, does have somewhat of a high floor as he’s run for 418 yards and four scores on 71 attempts over his last 11 games.

Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman (24) runs in front of San Francisco 49ers defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (99) during the second half in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 15, 2019.

Running Back – Undervalued:

Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons (DK $6,000, FD $6,200)

Stats Perform Ranking: 7

FantasyPros Ranking: 17

ProjectionCarries/CatchesYardsTDs
Rushes21.0750.4
Receiving4.0380.2

 

After managing just 39 yards on 12 carries against the tough San Francisco 49ers, Freeman has the benefit of playing Jacksonville’s struggling defense in Week 16. Since Week 5, only the Cincinnati Bengals have allowed more rushing yards per game (164.0) than the Jaguars (156.4).

The Falcons have won two in a row since getting starting guard Chris Lindstrom back and we project a lot of touches for Freeman with Atlanta holding a lead throughout this contest.

Running Back – Overvalued:

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (DK $7,700, FD $8,800)

Stats Perform Ranking: 25

FantasyPros Ranking: 6

ProjectionCarries/CatchesYardsTDs
Rushes16.7770.4
Receiving1.6110.1

 

Fantasy owners are not going to bench Henry in the most important week of their season, but expectations should be tempered against a stout New Orleans Saints run defense. In daily fantasy, it might be best to avoid Henry altogether as the Saints have held opponents to fewer than 90 rushing yards in five of their last eight games while allowing just three rushing touchdowns over that span.

Even though Henry has averaged 137 rushing yards while totaling seven touchdowns in his last five games, the Titans could very well be playing from behind in this contest and we don’t project them to run nearly as many plays on the ground.

Houston Texans wide receiver Will Fuller (15) makes a catch over Indianapolis Colts cornerback Marvell Tell (39) during the second half on Thursday, Nov. 21, 2019, in Houston.

Wide Receiver – Undervalued:

Will Fuller, Houston Texans (DK $5,900, FD $10,500)

Stats Perform Ranking: 6

FantasyPros Ranking: 24

ProjectionCatchesYardsTDs
Receiving5.6870.6

 

We project Fuller, Houston’s top deep threat, to have a good shot at getting behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ vulnerable pass defense this weekend. He’s likely to get his usual high-snap count and could break free for his first score since a memorable 14-catch, 217-yard, three-TD performance in Week 5 against Atlanta – another suspect pass defense.

The Buccaneers rank 30th in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 276.8 yards per game. They’ve also given up a whopping 28 touchdowns through the air in their last 12 – the second-highest total over that span.

Wide Receiver – Overvalued:

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears (DK $6,700, FD $7,800)

Stats Perform Ranking: 28

FantasyPros Ranking: 9

ProjectionCatchesYardsTDs
Receiving5.0570.4

 

Robinson has been Chicago’s main target in the passing game with 44 targets over the past four games. The Kansas City Chiefs, though, have been exceptional on pass defense and have suppressed opposing receivers’ targets by 22%.

Kansas City tends to keep passes short and in front of its defenders, meaning Robinson might be able to accumulate yardage but not get into the end zone.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cameron Brate (84) spikes the football after his 3-yard touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts during the first half on Sunday, Dec. 8, 2019, in Tampa, Fla.

Tight End – Undervalued:

Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK $3,500, FD $8,500)

Stats Perform Ranking: 11

FantasyPros Ranking: 22

ProjectionCatchesYardsTDs
Receiving3.8490.3

 

Brate had a touchdown reception in Week 14 and seven targets last week against the Detroit Lions. The Buccaneers are expected to continue to use more two-tight end sets with wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans sidelined.

Jameis Winston has thrown for eight touchdowns in the past two weeks and we rank Houston as one of the NFL’s worst teams in terms of defending the tight end position.