Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project NFL favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds
There was a bit of surprise around the STATS office last week when the predictive model released a spread favoring Dallas by 9.59 points over Kansas City when the Las Vegas consensus had that matchup marked as a pick ‘em.
Then, Dallas went out and won 28-17, and we gave ourselves a little pat on the back. That might be the case again this week with spreads from STATS and those from Vegas looking quite different.
STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.
None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.
Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 10 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Thursday afternoon.
Group 1: Occasionally, STATS and Vegas agree – for the most part:
Seattle at Arizona
STATS: Seahawks -8.3
Vegas: Seahawks -6
Seattle ranks 24th allowing 4.31 yards per carry, so Arizona’s best chance seems to be Adrian Peterson having another huge game.
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville
STATS: Jaguars -5.97
Vegas: Jaguars -3.5
Jacksonville has allowed the fewest points in the league by a landslide, so San Diego’s up-and-down offense will need to be sharp coming off the bye week.
New York Jets at Tampa Bay
STATS: Jets -3.64
Vegas: Jets -2.5
Jameis Winston is out. Mike Evans is suspended. That’s enough to favor the Jets – the JETS! – on the road.
New York Giants at San Francisco
STATS: Giants -0.2
Vegas: Giants -2.5
There might be bigger problems to address if you’re putting money on this game.
Group 2: STATS and Vegas agree on the favorite, but the spreads are pretty far apart.
Cincinnati at Tennessee
STATS: Titans -7.46
Vegas: Titans -4.5
The first-place Titans have won three in a row. So what if two of those victories came against Indianapolis and Cleveland?
Minnesota at Washington
STATS: Vikings -6.33
Vegas: Vikings -1
Teddy Bridgewater has been added to the active roster, but there’s been no word if he’ll start.
New Orleans at Buffalo
STATS: Saints -11.84
Vegas: Saints -3
STATS’ model loves the fact that New Orleans has rattled off six straight wins, with three of them coming on the road.
Cleveland at Detroit
STATS: Lions -5.88
Vegas: Lions -12
Another huge spread difference, this time going the other way. Vegas isn’t giving Cleveland much of a chance to avoid falling to 0-9.
Green Bay at Chicago
STATS: Bears -11.02
Vegas: Bears -5.5
Brett Hundley’s struggles accounted for in the STATS model is the explanation for this difference – as well as Mitchell Trubisky finally being allowed to throw the ball.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis
STATS: Steelers -4.63
Vegas: Steelers -10
Jacoby Brissett had a solid game last week to lead the Colts over the hobbled Texans. It’s likely going to be much more difficult for him this week.
Houston at Los Angeles Rams
STATS: Rams -16.84
Vegas: Rams -12
Speaking of that injured Houston team, the Rams appear ready to roll right over it after crushing the helpless Giants 51-17 last week.
New England at Denver
STATS: Patriots -10.84
Vegas: Patriots -7.5
It really won’t matter who the Broncos decide to put at quarterback. At all.
Group 3: Then there are games STATS and Vegas don’t agree on at all:
Dallas at Atlanta
STATS: Dallas -8.5
Vegas: Falcons -3
Once again, STATS is high on the Cowboys. It’s for good reason now that they’ve won three in a row.
Miami at Carolina
STATS: Dolphins -1.38
Vegas: Panthers -9
Someone will have some explaining to do Tuesday.