Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project NFL favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds
The STATS model shot out some eye-popping spreads this week when taking a quick glance through the numbers without looking at the matchup. Then things made much more sense.
Week 15 is projected to feature equal shares of blowouts and nail-biters. STATS lists eight double-digit favorites compared to three coming out of Las Vegas, while STATS sees the other half of the slate decided by less than a touchdown.
That includes the potential AFC championship game preview as New England visits Pittsburgh. The Patriots are coming off a surprising loss at Miami on Monday Night Football, and the Steelers have been living dangerously lately with narrow victories.
STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.
None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.
Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 15 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Thursday afternoon. We’ve divided games into two sections instead of three as in previous editions. Those projected scores for each game are new as of last week.
Group 1 – STATS Lines Similar to Vegas (Within 4 Points):
Chicago at Detroit
STATS: Lions -7.63
Vegas: Lions -5.5
Projected score: Lions 31, Bears 23
Baltimore at Cleveland
STATS: Ravens -13.04
Vegas: Ravens -7
Projected score: Ravens 27, Browns 14
Green Bay at Carolina
STATS: Panthers -0.9
Vegas: Panthers -3
Projected score: Panthers 27, Packers 24
Cincinnati at Minnesota
STATS: Vikings -6.84
Vegas: Vikings -10.5
Projected score: Vikings 25, Bengals 19
New York Jets at New Orleans
STATS: Saints -15.94
Vegas: Saints -16
Projected score: Saints 31, Jets 15
Tennessee at San Francisco
STATS: 49ers -4.55
Vegas: 49ers -2
Projected score: 49ers 24, Titans 20
New England at Pittsburgh
STATS: Patriots -1.64
Vegas: Patriots -3
Projected score: Patriots 26, Steelers 25
Dallas at Oakland
STATS: Cowboys -0.87
Vegas: Cowboys -3
Projected score: Cowboys 23, Raiders 22
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
STATS: Falcons -9.85
Vegas: Falcons -6
Projected score: Falcons 28, Bucs 18
Group 2 – STATS Lines Not Similar to Vegas:
Denver at Indianapolis
STATS: Colts -7.16
Vegas: Broncos -2.5
Projected score: Colts 20, Broncos 13
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City
STATS: Chargers -11.47
Vegas: Chargers -1
Projected score: Chargers 25, Chiefs 13
Houston at Jacksonville
STATS: Jaguars -17.38
Vegas: Jaguars -11
Projected score: Jaguars 26, Texans 9
Miami at Buffalo
STATS: Dolphins -1.22
Vegas: Bills -3.5
Projected score: Dolphins 25, Bills 24
Arizona at Washington
STATS: Cardinals -5.55
Vegas: Redskins -4.5
Projected score: Cardinals 22, Redskins 17
Philadelphia at New York Giants
STATS: Eagles -11.26
Vegas: Eagles -7.5
Projected score: Eagles 26, Giants 16
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle
STATS: Rams -0.06
Vegas: Seahawks -2.5
Projected score: Rams 20, Seahawks 18
