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Week 15 NFL Spreads: STATS vs. Las Vegas

By: Stats Perform

Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project NFL favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds

The STATS model shot out some eye-popping spreads this week when taking a quick glance through the numbers without looking at the matchup. Then things made much more sense.

Week 15 is projected to feature equal shares of blowouts and nail-biters. STATS lists eight double-digit favorites compared to three coming out of Las Vegas, while STATS sees the other half of the slate decided by less than a touchdown.

That includes the potential AFC championship game preview as New England visits Pittsburgh. The Patriots are coming off a surprising loss at Miami on Monday Night Football, and the Steelers have been living dangerously lately with narrow victories.

STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.

None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.

Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 15 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Thursday afternoon. We’ve divided games into two sections instead of three as in previous editions. Those projected scores for each game are new as of last week.

Group 1 – STATS Lines Similar to Vegas (Within 4 Points):

Chicago at Detroit

STATS: Lions -7.63
Vegas: Lions -5.5
Projected score: Lions 31, Bears 23

Baltimore at Cleveland

STATS: Ravens -13.04
Vegas: Ravens -7
Projected score: Ravens 27, Browns 14

Green Bay at Carolina

STATS: Panthers -0.9
Vegas: Panthers -3
Projected score: Panthers 27, Packers 24

Cincinnati at Minnesota

STATS: Vikings -6.84
Vegas: Vikings -10.5
Projected score: Vikings 25, Bengals 19

New York Jets at New Orleans

STATS: Saints -15.94
Vegas: Saints -16
Projected score: Saints 31, Jets 15

Tennessee at San Francisco

STATS: 49ers -4.55
Vegas: 49ers -2
Projected score: 49ers 24, Titans 20

New England at Pittsburgh

STATS: Patriots -1.64
Vegas: Patriots -3
Projected score: Patriots 26, Steelers 25

Dallas at Oakland

STATS: Cowboys -0.87
Vegas: Cowboys -3
Projected score: Cowboys 23, Raiders 22

Atlanta at Tampa Bay

STATS: Falcons -9.85
Vegas: Falcons -6
Projected score: Falcons 28, Bucs 18

Group 2 – STATS Lines Not Similar to Vegas:

Denver at Indianapolis

STATS: Colts -7.16
Vegas: Broncos -2.5
Projected score: Colts 20, Broncos 13

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City

STATS: Chargers -11.47
Vegas: Chargers -1
Projected score: Chargers 25, Chiefs 13

Houston at Jacksonville

STATS: Jaguars -17.38
Vegas: Jaguars -11
Projected score: Jaguars 26, Texans 9

Miami at Buffalo

STATS: Dolphins -1.22
Vegas: Bills -3.5
Projected score: Dolphins 25, Bills 24

Arizona at Washington

STATS: Cardinals -5.55
Vegas: Redskins -4.5
Projected score: Cardinals 22, Redskins 17

Philadelphia at New York Giants

STATS: Eagles -11.26
Vegas: Eagles -7.5
Projected score: Eagles 26, Giants 16

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle

STATS: Rams -0.06
Vegas: Seahawks -2.5
Projected score: Rams 20, Seahawks 18