Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds
STATS and Vegas differed on six favorites last week, and STATS ended up going 4-2 in those games straight up. The misses? Tampa Bay, which had a shot to beat New England on the final play, and the Bears, who got beat on a field goal in the final minute.
STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.
None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.
Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 6 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Thursday afternoon. Note that the Indianapolis at Tennessee game is not listed because of Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota’s uncertain injury status.
Group 1: Occasionally, STATS and Vegas agree – for the most part:
Philadelphia at Carolina
STATS: Panthers -2.28
Vegas: Panthers -3
It’s kind of a shame this battle of 4-1 teams happens when both are coming off a short week.
San Francisco at Washington
STATS: Redskins -9.54
Vegas: Redskins -10
Kirk Cousins faces his former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who’s now the head coach of a rebuilding 49ers team off to a 0-5 start.
Detroit at New Orleans
STATS: Saints -7.55
Vegas: Saints -5
Matthew Stafford is hurting, but he could play through it. Either way, it figures that smart money is on the Saints.
Miami at Atlanta
STATS: Falcons -13.25
Vegas: Falcons -11.5
This is the highest spread of the week for STATS and second-highest for Vegas. Who knows if the Dolphins even score.
Cleveland at Houston
STATS: Texans -9.54
Vegas: Texans -9.5
DeShaun Watson padded his stats during garbage time in last week’s loss to Kansas City, but he’s still becoming a quality QB beyond the fantasy points.
New England at New York Jets
STATS: Patriots -7.57
Vegas: Patriots -9.5
The matchup we’ve all been waiting for – Tom Brady vs. Josh McCown.
Tampa Bay at Arizona
STATS: Buccaneers -2.37
Vegas: Buccaneers -1.5
Adrian Peterson makes his Cardinals debut as they try to turn around their running game, but that’s not enough to keep them from being home underdogs.
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland
STATS: Raiders -1.86
Vegas: Raiders -3
Derek Carr could be back from the Raiders, who hope to end their struggles against a Chargers team coming off their first win.
New York Giants at Denver
STATS: Broncos -10.27
Vegas: Broncos -12
The Giants are 0-5 and have lost Odell Beckham for the season. These spreads might be underestimating the beating Denver is about to give them.
Group 2: STATS and Vegas agree on the favorite, but the spreads are pretty far apart:
Chicago at Baltimore
STATS: Ravens -10.33
Vegas: Ravens -6.5
Mitch Trubisky had a so-so debut that he looks to make up for in what could be an even tougher matchup.
Green Bay at Minnesota
STATS: Packers -8.77
Vegas: Packers -3
Aaron Rodgers slayed Dallas again in last week’s comeback victory, so going into Minnesota with the Vikings uncertain QB situation shouldn’t be too difficult.
Group 3: Then there are games were STATS and Vegas don’t agree at all:
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars
STATS: Rams -1.23
Vegas: Jaguars -2.5
This is one of the week’s most intriguing games between surprise 3-2 teams. The Rams and their rather fun offense will get a tough challenge from the Jaguars’ tough D.
Pittsburgh at Kansas City
STATS: Steelers -0.46
Vegas: Chiefs -4.5
STATS’ model still gives the edge to the Steelers despite Ben Roethlisberger’s five picks last week. And let’s not forget the Chiefs are undefeated, largely because of Alex Smith’s and Kareem Hunt’s unlikely emergence.