Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds
It’s not often to see double-digit spreads in NFL games, but this week there are two – and STATS and Vegas agree on both.
STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.
None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.
Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 8 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Thursday afternoon.
Group 1: Occasionally, STATS and Vegas agree – for the most part:
Minnesota at Cleveland
STATS: Vikings -7.72
Vegas: Vikings -9.5
Even the uncertainty of who Minnesota starts at quarterback – will it be Teddy Bridgewater? – can’t keep the Browns from being heavy underdogs.
Indianapolis at Cincinnati
STATS: Bengals -12.7
Vegas: Bengals -10.5
The Bengals should have an easy time getting back into the win column after having a two-game winning streak snapped last week.
Oakland at Buffalo
STATS: Bills -3.84
Vegas: Bills -2.5
The Raiders’ dramatic win over the Chiefs last week still couldn’t sway the spread in their favor against the Bills.
Carolina at Tampa Bay
STATS: Buccaneers -2.68
Vegas: Buccaneers -2
Cam Newton has thrown five interceptions over the last two weeks.
San Francisco at Philadelphia
STATS: Eagles -10.92
Vegas: Eagles -12.5
Carson Wentz is taking giant leaps in his sophomore season.
Denver at Kansas City
STATS: Chiefs -5.39
Vegas: Chiefs -7
Kansas City looks to avoid a third straight defeat.
Group 2: STATS and Vegas agree on the favorite, but the spreads are pretty far apart.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England
STATS: Patriots -4.02
Vegas: Patriots -7
The Chargers face a tough task as they seek a fourth straight victory.
Houston at Seattle
STATS: Seahawks -1.62
Vegas: Seahawks -5.5
Deshaun Watson has had a great rookie season to date, but Seattle’s defense is poised to shut him down.
Dallas at Washington
STATS: Cowboys -4.7
Vegas: Cowboys -2
The Redskins’ chances to win hinge on stopping Zeke.
Chicago at New Orleans
STATS: Saints -6.31
Vegas: Saints -9
Drew Brees will air it out, while the Bears likely will keep Mitchell Trubisky on a leash and make him hand it off the majority of the time.
Pittsburgh at Detroit
STATS: Steelers -5.53
Vegas: Steelers -3
Pittsburgh tries to overcome the Martavis Bryant drama.
Group 3: Then there are games were STATS and Vegas don’t agree at all:
Miami at Baltimore
STATS: Dolphins -1.84
Vegas: Ravens -3
STATS isn’t giving up on Jay Cutler just yet.
Atlanta at New York Jets
STATS: Jets -0.89
Vegas: Falcons -4.5
The Jets have lost two straight but are remaining competitive.