Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds.
Any projection models forecasting Ezekiel Elliott running for eight yards on nine carries against Denver’s defense and Trevor Siemian tossing four touchdowns in last week’s blowout of Dallas only could’ve been found in the minds of irrationally positive Broncos fans.
It’s true STATS didn’t necessarily expect either of those crazy statistical lines to become reality, but X-Info knew Denver’s chances of winning exceeded those of Dallas and correctly projected the favorite – unlike the consensus in Las Vegas.
STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.
None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.
Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 3 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Thursday afternoon. Note that the Tampa Bay-Minnesota game is absent from this list, as Vegas hasn’t yet released a line while waiting to find out more on Sam Bradford’s status.
Group 1: Occasionally, STATS and Vegas agree – for the most part – as noted in the games below:
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco
STATS: Rams -4.3
Vegas: Rams -2.5
The 49ers have scored 12 points in the first two weeks. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams cover the spread with only a field goal.
Atlanta at Detroit
STATS: Falcons -4.4
Vegas: Falcons -3
This battle of 2-0 teams in Detroit could be a high-scoring affair and one of the best – and most unpredictable – games of the week.
Baltimore at Jacksonville
STATS: Ravens -3.3
Vegas: Ravens -3.5
New Orleans at Carolina
STATS: Panthers -4
Vegas: Panthers -5.5
Miami at New York Jets
STATS: Dolphins -5.5
Vegas: Dolphins -6
Group 2: There are games in which STATS and Vegas at least agree on the favorite, but there is a pretty decent margin between the STATS spread and the Vegas spread:
Houston at New England
STATS: Patriots -19.9
Vegas: Patriots -13.5
Neither STATS or Vegas has much confidence in the Texans’ defense against Tom Brady and Co.
Denver at Buffalo
STATS: Broncos -13.4
Vegas: Broncos -3
New York Giants at Philadelphia
STATS: Eagles -18.2
Vegas: Eagles -6
Eli Manning has completed 72.9 percent of his passes. Unfortunately, only one of his 51 completions have resulted in a touchdown.
Cincinnati at Green Bay
STATS: Packers -13.3
Vegas: Packers -9
Choosing Aaron Rodgers over Andy Dalton isn’t rocket science.
Pittsburgh at Chicago
STATS: Steelers -3.1
Vegas: Steelers -7.5
Dallas at Arizona
STATS: Cowboys -6.5
Vegas: Cowboys -3
Group 3: Then there are games where STATS and Vegas don’t agree at all:
Cleveland at Indianapolis
STATS: Colts -7
Vegas: Browns -1.5
The Browns being a road favorite for the first time in what seems like decades is fun and all, but the STATS model isn’t believing any of the hype. After all, the Colts took Arizona to overtime last week at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Seattle at Tennessee
STATS: Seahawks -9.8
Vegas: Titans -2.5
Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers
STATS: Chargers -2.2
Vegas: Chiefs -3
Kareem Hunt vs. Melvin Gordon could be very exciting. Or this could be a defensive slog.
Oakland at Washington
STATS: Redskins -2.3
Vegas: Raiders -3
This is a rare matchup between two teams with quarterbacks ready to air it out. A Derek Carr vs. Kirk Cousins showdown could result in some exciting Sunday Night Football.
