Stats Perform Product Director Martin Popov on why the data powering prediction markets will shape how far they can go.
In March 2026, CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight published guidance for exchanges issued guidance for exchanges listing sports event contracts: specify what data your contracts settle on, demonstrate that it is reliable and objective, and show it is resistant to manipulation. For sports contracts, the expectation was more direct: use official data as your settlement source.
I have been expecting guidance like this for a while. I have spent over a decade working on data-driven settlement across sport, and the challenges the CFTC is now flagging are ones I have seen the industry work through before. As markets moved beyond broad outcomes into player-level and in-game positions, operators discovered that the data feed powering their product was also the feed determining whether markets could settle accurately, quickly and without dispute. Most of them chose to build on Opta because it was the only provider that could consistently support accurate, fast settlement at that level of detail.
Prediction markets are hitting the same wall. Outright contracts are simple to settle, but the platforms looking to grow are expanding into player props, statistical thresholds and live in-game positions, all of which require verified, event-level evidence of what happened and when. Most sports data feeds were never built for that, and users notice quickly when settlements are delayed, outcomes are disputed or payouts do not come through.
Opta is one of the few sports data brands recognised by names beyond the industry, by fans, pundits and the media companies that serve them.
Stats Perform collects sports data through proprietary methods refined over 45 years across US sports and 30 years in soccer under the Opta brand. Every match is covered by trained human analysts working alongside optical tracking systems and proprietary AI models, producing event-level data across every goal, pass, rebound, shot and foul, all of it structured for operational use, including automated settlement.
That level of collection matters most for data points that involve interpretation. Take shots on target: whether a blocked effort was heading goalward is a judgment call, and different providers will give you different answers depending on who is collecting and what methodology they use.
Opta’s analysts apply a consistent framework to these decisions across every match and competition, which is why sportsbooks have trusted Opta for years to settle markets where the outcome depends on more than just the final score.
We’ve tested that consistency across thousands of matches and expanded their market catalogues because of the confidence it gave them. Prediction market platforms looking to grow their own catalogues have the same opportunity to build on that foundation.
Opta’s collection methodology is proprietary. We do not aggregate from third-party sources the way many competitors do. The data passes through multiple verification and integrity layers. Stats Perform is the only major sports data provider whose collection processes are independently audited, and we operate a dedicated integrity department
With a sports data provider that can support settlement at this level of detail, the next question for prediction market platforms is how broadly they can expand. A broader catalogue of sports, leagues and competitions means a larger trader pool, stronger liquidity and less exposure to gaps in the sporting calendar.
Opta covers football, basketball, American football, baseball, ice hockey, tennis, cricket, rugby union, rugby league, handball, volleyball, futsal, water polo, Australian rules football and Formula 1, spanning more than 500,000 events per year across competitions ranging from the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A to the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, the Champions League, Copa Libertadores and international tournaments including the FIFA World Cup. That breadth gives prediction market platforms a catalogue of sports and competitions they can expand into without needing to onboard additional data providers or compromise on quality.
The product quality is the same, whatever the sport. Every one of those sports and competitions is collected through the same proprietary methodology, the same verification layers, the same output. Whether a prediction market platform is settling a Champions League semi-final, an NFL Thursday night game or a mid-season La Liga fixture, the product it receives from Opta is the same. That means fewer settlement errors, faster payouts and a better experience for users regardless of the market.
The markets you can launch, how far you can expand, and the settlement experience your users get all come down to one decision: your data provider. The longer that decision is deferred, the harder and more expensive it becomes to change course, especially now that regulators are asking platforms to name and justify their settlement data sources.
When you sit down with competing providers, the conversation will tell you everything you need to know.
Then ask Opta the same questions.
The difference will be clear before you leave the room.
Opta already powers settlement for the biggest operators in sport, and we work with prediction market platforms to build the same foundation – from integrating Opta Data Feeds into settlement infrastructure, mapping coverage against catalogue expansion plans, and making sure data sources meet the standard the CFTC is now setting.
I have watched platforms try to solve settlement accuracy, speed, and coverage with inferior data, and it always catches up with them. The ones that got it right did so by making the data decision early. That window is open for prediction markets right now, and Opta is the partner to make it count.
