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2017 STATS Fantasy Football: Week 10 Tiers

By: STATS LLC

First, I hope no one was thrown off by the switch from Wednesday to Thursday for my weekly fantasy football tiers. Plenty of you have become accustomed to the day of publishing, and we apologize for not giving enough advanced notice.

So, here’s some fair warning: Going forward, the weekly tiers will be posted every Thursday. This allows me to gather more news and information in order to be more accurate closer to the actual games. What hasn’t changed is you can still hit me up on Twitter for any questions and I’ll try to respond to as many as possible.

For Week 10, I am going to keep the overall intro brief and offer position-based analysis. I hope that my deep dives have given some insight as to just how many different layers and concepts are at play when it comes to my projections model – from which these tiers are based – combined with news/updates impacting the rankings.

Don’t forget, these tiers reflect non-PPR scoring. The number in parentheses next to the player’s matchup indicates how many tiers they’d move up or down in a PPR format. One thing to note, just because a RB may see a couple receptions doesn’t mean they would simply get a +1 rating. Keep in mind that these PPR ratings factor in the players surrounding him, so if he’s expected to get two receptions but three other RBs of his caliber project to have three, he could sink a bit if it’s close amongst the RBs around him. Just remember that these are dynamic and factor that aspect in.

The FLEX Rating is a number that allows you to compare each tier across the RB/WR/TE positions for FLEX decisions.

Quarterbacks

Week 10 offers a ton of Tier 1 and 2-caliber QBs. You really can’t go wrong with any of the top 10. Just because you might think a QB like Jared Goff should be ranked No. 1 and I have him ranked No. 9 doesn’t mean I don’t like him. Far from it.

There is such a small difference from Russell Wilson to Drew Brees this week, so these rankings may shuffle a bit based on even slight adjustments I make leading up to Sunday. I think as a two-touchdown favorite over Houston, Goff offers a very high floor and is a very safe play. However, I just don’t see him needing to put up huge numbers for them to win this week. In a sense, this curbs his ceiling a bit, which is less of a big deal in season-long formats/daily fantasy cash formats and more of a DFS tournament fade for me, since he could be over-owned this week.

Tier 1

Russell Wilson (@ ARI)
Tom Brady (@ DEN)
Matthew Stafford (vs CLE)
Cam Newton (vs MIA)
Dak Prescott (@ ATL)

Tier 2

Matt Ryan (vs DAL)
Ben Roethlisberger (@ IND)
Tyrod Taylor (vs NO)
Jared Goff (vs HOU)
Drew Brees (@ BUF)

Tier 3

Kirk Cousins (vs MIN)
Marcus Mariota (vs CIN)
Josh McCown (@ TB)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs NYJ)

Tier 4

Andy Dalton (@ TEN)
C.J. Beathard (vs NYG)
Case Keenum (@ WAS)
Blake Bortles (vs LAC)

Tier 5

Mitchell Trubisky (vs GB)
Jacoby Brissett (vs PIT)
Brock Osweiler (vs NE)
Eli Manning (@ SF)
Philip Rivers (@ JAX)

Tier 6

Jay Cutler (@ CAR)
Brett Hundley (@ CHI)
DeShone Kizer (@ DET)

Tier 7

Drew Stanton (vs SEA)
Tom Savage (@ LAR)

Running Backs

A super-sneaky play this week is Orleans Darkwa, who is in a great spot at San Francisco. Game flow should allow the Giants to not have to play come-from-behind and instead, can lean on the running game a bit more. He is shaping up to be a true workhorse back for them making us be able to trust him a bit more in these spots.

Ameer Abdullah is also in a great spot, significantly boosting his stock for this week. It’s always a bit frustrating projecting him week-to-week since he has the skill set to be more involved in goal line work and catching passes out of the back field. The Lions typically hand out those responsibilities to Washington, Zenner and Riddick. They should control this game from the start which should raise Abdullah’s volume enough to exceed his typical expectations. His stock can only go up with any injuries below him on the depth chart or the Lions gaining enough confidence in him to be more of a workhorse back. Plus, he should get back stud LT Taylor Decker in the next few weeks which would be a huge boost to the Lions O-Line. He’s a great buy low candidate in my opinion.

The Dolphins backfield played out almost exactly how I envisioned it would in Week 9. I raised some eyebrows when I initially stated that Drake was the play for standard and Williams the play for PPR formats. I amended my initial assessment by saying Drake is the better add in both formats due to his long term value likely taking over the RBBC. Early on we saw Williams dominate in the passing game, even adding in a TD catch to boot. Drake dominated the rush attempts/yardage. The fact that they actually increased Drake’s usage after his fumble also proved my theory that they will give him a long leash due to him being under team control next year while Williams is a free agent after this year. A Week 10 matchup at Carolina makes this a RBBC to avoid but I think it would be a good time to buy low on Drake if both RBs struggle this week. He has the potential to emerge into more of a workhorse back come towards the end of the season if this plays out how I envision.

Tier 1 (FLEX Rating: 19.0)

Le’Veon Bell (@ IND)

Tier 2 (16.5)

Ezekiel Elliott (@ ATL)
Todd Gurley (vs HOU)
Leonard Fournette (vs LAC)

Tier 3 (15.0)

LeSean McCoy (vs NO)
Jordan Howard (vs GB)

Tier 4 (14.0)

Melvin Gordon (@ JAX)

Tier 5 (12.5)

Mark Ingram (@ BUF)
Devonta Freeman (-1, vs DAL)
Carlos Hyde (vs NYG)

Tier 6 (11.0)

Lamar Miller (@ LAR)
Alvin Kamara (@ BUF)
Orleans Darkwa (@ SF)
Adrian Peterson (-1, vs SEA)

Tier 7 (10.0)

Christian McCaffrey (+2, vs MIA)
Joe Mixon (@ TEN)
Jerick McKinnon (@ WAS)
Ameer Abdullah (vs CLE)

Tier 8 (9.0)

Chris Thompson (+1, vs MIN)
Aaron Jones (@ CHI)
Doug Martin (-1, vs NYJ)
DeMarco Murray (vs CIN)
Frank Gore (vs PIT)
Matt Forte (@ TB)

Tier 9 (7.5)

Tevin Coleman (vs DAL)
Derrick Henry (-1, vs CIN)
Kenyan Drake (@ CAR)
C.J. Anderson (vs NE)
Isaiah Crowell (@ DET)
Alfred Morris (-1, @ ATL) *If Zeke is suspended
Latavius Murray (@ WAS)
Dion Lewis (@ DEN)

Tier 10 (7.0)

Jonathan Stewart (vs MIA)
Thomas Rawls (@ ARI)
Bilal Powell (@ TB)
Duke Johnson Jr. (@ DET)
Wayne Gallman (@ SF)
Marlon Mack (vs PIT)
Tarik Cohen (vs GB)
James White (@ DEN)
Rob Kelley (vs MIN)
Damien Williams (@ CAR)

Wide Receivers

Unfortunately, the Deshaun Watson injury occurred after my Tiers piece was posted last week, so I didn’t get to dive into my analysis of the situation. I think it was pretty obvious right off the bat that everyone on the offense suffered a significant blow, especially in the passing game. There seemed to be a bit of an overreaction to DeAndre Hopkins’ value, as some people were thinking he was all of the sudden part of the sit/start discussion. I still had him ranked as a solid WR1 in Week 9 since he’s still likely to dominate in targets. Will Fuller saw the biggest drop in my rankings, going from a fringe WR1 all the way down to a WR3/Flex play.

The actual results last week solidified this theory as we saw Hopkins match a season-high 16 targets for a solid 6/86/1 line while Fuller finally had an inefficient game with only 2/32/0 on a season-high eight targets. It definitely wasn’t pretty with Hopkins, but I can’t emphasize enough that we don’t care about the Texans’ QB Rating. As long as Tom Savage is peppering Hopkins with targets, no matter how inefficient they may be, this is what helps us accrue counting stats needed to provide us more fantasy points than our opponent. That may the least glamourous take on the situation but it helps drive home the point on the correct way to perceive the situation with Hopkins.

When it comes to Fuller, it’s a bit different since he relies, in a sense, on the efficiency of the QB and the targets he receives. He will still be able to generate huge plays based on his talent alone so his ceiling will always be a bit higher than other players ranked in the WR3/Flex range he will live in going forward. However, he is going to be much more inconsistent and have a basement-low floor going forward, making him a very risky weekly investment.

There’s a chance you can get pennies on the dollar for him still in some type of trade based on his season to date stats and a low information league member. I think the best course of action would be to hang on to him and hope that they get T.J. Yates up to speed enough to take over the offense, which may give Fuller a slight boost going forward.

Tier 1 (13.0)

Antonio Brown (@ IND)

Tier 2 (11.0)

Julio Jones (vs DAL)
A.J. Green (@ TEN)

Tier 3 (9.5)

Michael Thomas (@ BUF)
Doug Baldwin (@ ARI)
Brandin Cooks (-1, @ DEN)
Dez Bryant (@ ATL)
Golden Tate (vs CLE)
DeAndre Hopkins (@ LAR)

Tier 4 (8.5)

Demaryius Thomas (vs NE)
Marvin Jones Jr. (vs CLE)
Adam Thielen (@ WAS)
Stefon Diggs (@ WAS)
Devin Funchess (vs MIA)
T.Y. Hilton (vs PIT)
Robby Anderson (@ TB)
Larry Fitzgerald (vs SEA)

Tier 5 (7.75)

DeSean Jackson (vs NYJ)
Juju Smith-Schuster (@ IND)
Sterling Shepard (@ SF)
Robert Woods (vs HOU)
Jarvis Landry (+1, @ CAR)
Emmanuel Sanders (vs NE)
Keenan Allen (@ JAX)
DeVante Parker (@ CAR)
Mohamed Sanu (vs DAL)

Tier 6 (6.5)

Cooper Kupp (vs HOU)
Ted Ginn Jr. (@ BUF)
Marqise Lee (vs LAC)
Jordy Nelson (@ CHI)
Rishard Matthews (vs CIN)
Davante Adams (@ CHI)
Sammy Watkins (vs HOU)
Paul Richardson (@ ARI)
Danny Amendola (@ DEN)
Kelvin Benjamin (vs NO)
Jermaine Kearse (@ TB)
Tyler Lockett (@ ARI)
Allen Hurns (vs LAC)
Marquise Goodwin (vs NYG)

Tier 7 (5.5)

Aldrick Robinson (vs NYG)
Will Fuller V (@ LAR)
Curtis Samuel (vs MIA)
Adam Humphries (vs NYJ)
Josh Doctson (vs MIN)
TJ Jones (vs CLE)
Terrance Williams (@ ATL)
Randall Cobb (@ CHI)
Corey Davis (vs CIN)
Kendall Wright (vs GB)
Kenny Stills (@ CAR)
John Brown (vs SEA)
Eric Decker (vs CIN)
Tyrell Williams (@ JAX)
Martavis Bryant (@ IND)
Cole Beasley (@ ATL)

Tier 8 (4.5)

Ricardo Louis (@ DET)
Travis Benjamin (@ JAX)
Jamison Crowder (vs MIN)
Tre McBride (vs GB)
Brandon LaFell (@ TEN)
Jordan Matthews (vs NO)
Tavon Austin (-1, vs HOU)
Taylor Gabriel (vs DAL)
Ryan Grant (vs MIN)
Kendrick Bourne (vs NYG)

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed is still a true game-time decision as I type this. If he is ruled out, Vernon Davis would jump up to Tier 3. It’s also worth noting that Charles Clay is questionable to return this week, so if you’ve been relying on Nick O’Leary the past few weeks it may be time to go back into the TE streamer well.

Tier 1 (10.0)

Rob Gronkowski (@ DEN)

Tier 2 (8.5)

Evan Engram (@ SF)

Tier 3 (7.0)

Jimmy Graham (@ ARI)
Cameron Brate (vs NYJ)

Tier 4 (6.5)

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (@ TB)
Delanie Walker (vs CIN)
Jack Doyle (+1, vs PIT)
Jason Witten (@ ATL)
Kyle Rudolph (@ WAS)

Tier 5 (5.5)

Vernon Davis (vs MIN)
Hunter Henry (@ JAX)
Tyler Kroft (@ TEN)
Austin Hooper (vs DAL)

Tier 6 (4.5)

Charles Clay (vs NO)
Jordan Reed (vs MIN)
Ed Dickson (vs MIA)
David Njoku (@ DET)
Julius Thomas (@ CAR)
Eric Ebron (vs CLE)
O.J. Howard (vs NYJ)

Tier 7 (4.0)

A.J. Derby (vs NE)
Garrett Celek (+1, vs NYG)
Jesse James (@ IND)
Dion Sims (vs GB)
Tyler Higbee (vs HOU)
C.J. Fiedorowicz (@ LAR)
Marcedes Lewis (vs LAC)

Kickers

Tier 1

Matt Prater (vs CLE)
Greg Zuerlein (vs HOU)
Matt Bryant (vs DAL)
Stephen Gostkowski (@ DEN)

Tier 2

Chris Boswell (@ IND)

Tier 3

Graham Gano (vs MIA)
Blair Walsh (@ ARI)
Mike Nugent (@ ATL)
Chandler Catanzaro (@ TB)
Ryan Succop (vs CIN)
Wil Lutz (@ BUF)
Kai Forbath (@ WAS)
Josh Lambo (vs LAC)

Tier 4

Stephen Hauschka (vs NO)
Connor Barth (vs GB)
Robbie Gould (vs NYG)
Nick Rose (vs MIN)
Aldrick Rosas (@ SF)
Brandon McManus (vs NE)
Patrick Murray (vs NYJ)

Tier 5

Adam Vinatieri (vs PIT)
Nick Novak (@ JAX)
Phil Dawson (vs SEA)
Marshall Koehn (@ TEN)
Ka’imi Fairbairn (@ LAR)
Zane Gonzalez (@ DET)
Mason Crosby (@ CHI)

Tier 6

Cody Parkey (@ CAR)

Defenses

Tier 1

Detroit Lions (vs CLE)
Chicago Bears (vs GB)
Carolina Panthers (vs MIA)
Seattle Seahawks (@ ARI)

Tier 2

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs LAC)
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ IND)
Los Angeles Rams (vs HOU)

Tier 3

New England Patriots (@ DEN)
New York Giants (@ SF)

Tier 4

New York Jets (@ TB)
Minnesota Vikings (@ WAS)
Tennessee Titans (vs CIN)

Tier 5

Arizona Cardinals (vs SEA)
New Orleans Saints (@ BUF)
San Francisco 49ers (vs NYG)
Washington Redskins (vs MIN)
Los Angeles Chargers (@ JAX)
Cincinnati Bengals (@ TEN)
Miami Dolphins (@ CAR)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs NYJ)
Green Bay Packers (@ CHI)

Tier 6

Dallas Cowboys (@ ATL)
Buffalo Bills (vs NO)

Tier 7

Atlanta Falcons (vs DAL)
Indianapolis Colts (vs PIT)
Cleveland Browns (@ DET)
Denver Broncos (vs NE)
Houston Texans (@ LAR)