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STATS MLB DFS Projections, April 9: DeGrom is a Must-Play

By: Stats Perform

Tonight features a slate of 11 games ripe with opportunity for value in daily contests. Using STATS’ daily projections alongside the salaries of each player on the respective contest site, this article will pinpoint the most optimal starts of the night.

Top Projection: Jacob deGrom ($11,600 DraftKings/$12,000 FanDuel)
Unsurprisingly, deGrom sits atop our projections for both sites as he looks to continue his white-hot start to the season versus Minnesota. As a team, the Twins are hitting for contact relatively well but have only turned those opportunities into 35 total runs, good for 23rd in MLB.

Value Pick: Mike Minor ($6,300 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel)
Minor is our value play for the week on both sites with an opportunity to make the best of his modest salary with a projection of six-plus strikeouts.

Top Projections: Yasmani Grandal ($4,200 DraftKings), Chris Iannetta ($3,100 FanDuel)
Grandal and Iannetta project as our top scoring catchers on their respective sites, with Grandal poised to continue his momentous first campaign with the Brewers and Iannetta looking to make the best of hitting at home in Coors versus Atlanta’s Max Fried.

Value Picks: Jonathan Lucroy ($3,000 DraftKings), Nick Hundley ($2,000 FanDuel)
Lucroy and Hundley are the value plays at the position, with modest hitting projections going undervalued by their meager salaries.

First Base
Top Projection: Freddie Freeman ($5,100 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel)
Freeman is our top player at first base on both sites as he brings his fearsome bat to Coors Field for a matchup with German Marquez and the Rockies.

Value Picks: Justin Bour ($3,600 DraftKings), Wilmer Flores ($2,200 FanDuel)
Bour and Flores serve as good values, with Bour projected to have a modest evening despite having one of the lowest salaries at the position. Flores projects as our third-best first baseman while being grossly undervalued on FanDuel.

Second Base
Top Projection: Jose Altuve ($4,500 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel)
Altuve is our top play at second base on both sites as well as the best value on DraftKings, as he projects to have a killer evening facing off against Jonathan Loaisiga and the Yankees.

Value Picks: Altuve ($4,500 DraftKings), Chad Pinder ($2,100 FanDuel)
Pinder, who is off to a strong start to the year slugging .514, serves as our value play for FanDuel, as he projects as our fifth-highest projected second baseman while sporting a modest salary.

Third Base
Top Projection: Nolan Arenado ($5,300 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel)
Like Iannetta, Arenado projects to have a great showing tonight versus the Braves and serves as our top projected starter at third base on both sites.

Value Picks: Matt Chapman ($4,600 DraftKings), Renato Nunez ($2,500 FanDuel)
Despite having the third-highest salary, Chapman is our DraftKings value play, as he projects to make the most of that hefty price tag with the second-highest projection at the position. Conversely, Nunez of the Orioles is the FanDuel value play as his meager salary undervalues his projection to get on base tonight as a competent contact hitter.

Top Projection: Trevor Story ($5,100 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel)
Story, another Rockies player, serves as the highest projected shortstop for the evening. The combination of Coors Field and an opposing left-handed pitcher on the mound has Colorado hitters set up for success.

Value Picks: Andrelton Simmons ($3,400 DraftKings), Hanser Alberto ($2,000 FanDuel)
Simmons and Alberto are the value plays of the slate, with Simmons projected to make the most of his moderately-high salary on DraftKings, while Alberto continues to be undervalued on FanDuel despite his strong start to the year as a contact hitter.

Top Projections: Mike Trout ($5,600 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel), Christian Yelich ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel), Khris Davis ($5,400 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel)
Trout, Davis, and Yelich project as our top plays at the outfielder spots on both sites, with our model liking their odds of getting on base and scoring at least once in their respective games.

Value Picks: Nick Markakis ($4,000 DraftKings), Lorenzo Cain ($4,100 DraftKings), Kole Calhoun ($3,400 DraftKings), Scott Schebler ($2,200 FanDuel), Jesse Winker ($2,400 FanDuel), Derek Dietrich ($2,200 FanDuel)
Our best DraftKings value plays are Markakis, Cain, and Calhoun. Markakis and Cain project to make the most of their moderate salary, while Calhoun projects to outperform his salary — the second lowest at the position. On FanDuel, the value plays of the night come from the low-end of the salary pool as Schebler, Winker, and Dietrich all project to hit better than their salary values them.

STATS Picks (DraftKings)

STATS Picks are what our model considers to be the most optimal lineup for the slate (on DraftKings) based on a mix of our projections and how the salary cap would be best spent to get the most out of every single roster selection.

Jacob deGrom ($11,600)
Zack Greinke ($8,900)

Johnathan Lucroy ($3,000)

First Base
Justin Bour ($3,600)

Second Base
Luis Urias ($3,200)

Third Base
Matt Chapman ($4,600)

Andrelton Simmons ($3,400)

Mitch Haniger ($4,200)
Lorenzo Cain ($4,100)
Kole Calhoun ($3,400)