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Stats Perform vs. Las Vegas: Finding the Most Value in Week 12

By: Kyle Cunningham-Rhoads

This week, Stats Perform debuts a series that will help bettors find the best value for the remainder of the NFL slate.

Backed by metrics powered by machine learning, other advanced analytics and proprietary roster rankings, Stats Perform, the revolutionary leader in sports AI and data, projects spreads for every game, every week.

We calculate roster quality based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compare that to an opponent and arrive at a conclusion – the projected spread. Using those spreads, we can compare them to spreads from the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks, find where we differ the most and extract value from those games.

Explanation of units:

Units refer to the confidence level of the pick. The strongest would be around six units, so anything four or higher is a very high level of confidence.

Here’s a look at what Stats Perform projects to have a good amount of value for the rest of Week 12:

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, center, passes in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Nov. 17, 2019.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Odds: 49ers -3

Stats Perform Pick: Packers +3

Confidence: 5 Units

The 49ers have been a surprise success story, but they’ve been hit hard by the injury bug and are led by a quarterback who may be a liability. The defensive line is still their biggest strength, despite Dee Ford being declared out and Ronald Blair lost for the season. This week they get the Packers offensive line, where the matchups of Bosa vs. Bakhtiari, Armstead vs. Bulaga, and Buckner vs. Linsey/Jenkins should be must-watch television.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers are missing left tackle Joe Staley, and face a defensive line that Stats Perform ranks third in the NFL (behind the 49ers). Rookie Justin Skule has filled in admirably for the injured veteran, but he’ll have his hands full with Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith this week. Jimmy Garoppolo may be under more pressure than usual and we expect the 49ers to rely on the ground game, where they do have an advantage.

However, they’ll have to pass it eventually and the Packers defensive line could force Garoppolo into some poor decisions. We’ll take the Packers getting a few points in what should be a good game.

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins

Odds: Redskins +3.5

Stats Perform Pick: Redskins +3.5

Confidence: 4 Units

Hold your nose and back rookie QB Dwayne Haskins against a depleted Lions roster. Matt Stafford is out, but the Lions will also be missing starting free safety Tracy Walker, high-dollar edge rusher Trey Flowers, disruptive interior rusher Da’Shawn Hand, and perhaps most importantly, starting center Frank Ragnow.

The Redskins are not a good team, but they’re healthier than the Lions, playing at home, and getting points. We like them to cover, but also think they have a good shot to win outright. If you’re looking for some matchups to watch in this game, pay special attention to Detroit defensive tackles Damon “Snacks” Harrison and A’Shawn Robinson against Washington’s Chase Roullier and Brandon Scherff.

Both Roullier and Scherff are spectacular run blockers, and the Redskins should have a focus on the ground game in this one.

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) in action on Sunday, Nov. 10, 2019, in East Rutherford, N.J.

New York Giants at Chicago Bears

Odds: Bears -6

Stats Perform Pick: Giants +6

Confidence: 4 Units

The Bears have been a colossal disappointment, and it started with the loss of Akiem Hicks on the defensive line. They relied heavily on their defense in 2018, and their ability to stop the run and get interior pressure kept the ball in the hands of the offense. Mitch Trubisky wasn’t good last year either, but he did play smart, understanding that his defense would get him into favorable field position through turnovers. Without Hicks, the defensive line has been considerably worse against the run, leading to fewer opportunities for their vaunted pass defense to force turnovers.

For the Giants, they’re coming off a bye week, and welcome back three key members of their offensive line (center Jon Halapio, left tackle Nate Solder, and right tackle Mike Remmers). None of them are All-Pro quality, but they should open up more lanes for Saquon Barkley than he’s had the last few games. Six points is too many, and we’d back the road dogs all the way down to 3.5.

Other Bets

Eagles -1 (vs. Seahawks), 3 Units

Jaguars +3.5 (at Titans), 3 Units

Raiders -3 (at Jets), 2 Units

Buccaneers +3.5 (at Falcons), 2 Units

Panthers +10 (at Saints), 1 Unit

Ravens -3 (at Rams, Monday night), 1 Unit