Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds.
The true parity of the NFL came out in all its frustrating glory last week, helping Vegas casinos walk away millions of dollars ahead. Jacksonville, Buffalo, Chicago and the New York Jets threw wrinkles in the betting process with unexpected victories. But even with all those surprises, STATS went 9-7 when it came to picking the correct favorite.
STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.
None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.
Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 4 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Thursday afternoon.
Group 1: Occasionally, STATS and Vegas agree – for the most part – as noted in the games below:
Detroit at Minnesota
STATS: Vikings -2
Vegas: Vikings -1.5
Jacksonville at New York Jets
STATS: Jaguars -3.5
Vegas: Jaguars -3
Indianapolis at Seattle
STATS: Seahawks -13.4
Vegas: Seahawks -13
STATS thinks the Colts stink. Vegas thinks the Colts stink. Everyone thinks the Colts stink.
Cincinnati at Cleveland
STATS: Bengals -2.5
Vegas: Bengals -3
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
STATS: Steelers -1.8
Vegas: Steelers -3
Both teams are coming off losses that shouldn’t have happened, but turnovers doomed them.
Washington at Kansas City
STATS: Chiefs -5.4
Vegas: Chiefs -7
This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the week and gets the Monday Night Football spotlight. There’s some surprise that the Chiefs are such big favorites, but the home advantage is what’s helping bring the spread up.
San Francisco at Arizona
STATS: Cardinals -4.4
Vegas: Cardinals -7
Oakland at Denver
STATS: Broncos -0.8
Vegas: Broncos -3
Group 2: There are games in which STATS and Vegas at least agree on the favorite, but there is a pretty decent margin between the STATS spread and the Vegas spread:
Chicago at Green Bay
STATS: Packers -17.9
Vegas: Packers -7
No love for the Bears after their upset of the Steelers last week, but Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen hope to flip the script again while Mike Glennon watches Aaron Rodgers and tries to learn how to throw a pass beyond the line of scrimmage.
New Orleans at Miami
STATS: Saints -8.4
Vegas: Saints -3
Carolina at New England
STATS: Patriots -1.1
Vegas: Patriots -9
New England had a close call with a mediocre Texans team last week, and Vegas is more confident it’ll get back to its dominating ways.
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas
STATS: Cowboys -2.8
Vegas: Cowboys -6.5
Tennessee at Houston
STATS: Titans -8.3
Vegas: Titans -1.5
Buffalo at Atlanta
STATS: Falcons -13.9
Vegas: Falcons -8
New York Giants at Tampa Bay
STATS: Buccaneers -9.8
Vegas: Buccaneers -3
Group 3: Then there are games where STATS and Vegas don’t agree at all:
Philadelphia at Los Angeles Chargers
STATS: Eagles -6.8
Vegas: Chargers -1.5
This is the only game this week that STATS’ model and Las Vegas don’t agree on the favorite. It’s the first time this season there haven’t been multiple games in this section.
