Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds
Most everyone can agree one of the bigger games of the week features the AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon. STATS and Las Vegas oddsmakers, however, don’t see eye to eye on how things will play out.
STATS’ predictive model believes the Cowboys hold an obvious advantage at Jerry World, while Vegas isn’t giving points either way. It’s not often STATS and Vegas are so far apart in important games with teams that seem so evenly matched.
STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.
None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.
Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 9 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Thursday afternoon.
Group 1: Occasionally, STATS and Vegas agree – for the most part:
Buffalo at New York Jets
STATS: Bills -3.37
Vegas: Bills -3
Buffalo is a Thursday night win away from 6-2 as it chases its first playoff berth since 1999. The Bills will have newly acquired receiver Kelvin Benjamin ready to give Tyrod Taylor a new target.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
STATS: Rams -4.9
Vegas: Rams -3.5
A bit of a role reversal here, as the Giants are staring down a high draft pick and the Rams are legitimate contenders.
Denver at Philadelphia
STATS: Eagles -9.99
Vegas: Eagles -8.5
The Broncos are in disarray and have made the switch to Brock Osweiler from Trevor Siemian. They’ll get no sympathy from the NFL-best Eagles, who try to improve to 8-1 with rising star Carson Wentz and new running back Jay Ajayi.
Washington at Seattle
STATS: Seahawks -6.93
Vegas: Seahawks -7
The two best games yardage-wise of Russell Wilson’s career have come this season after he lit up Houston last week. His strong play has helped the Seahawks win four in a row and they try to send Washington to a third consecutive defeat.
Oakland at Miami
STATS: Raiders -1.1
Vegas: Raiders -3
Jay Cutler should be back for the NFL’s worst offense, which got shut out last Thursday at Baltimore and just traded Ajayi to Philadelphia.
Detroit at Green Bay
STATS: Lions -1.31
Vegas: Lions -2.5
Brett Hundley since Aaron Rodgers went down: 51.7 completion percentage, one touchdown pass, four interceptions.
Group 2: STATS and Vegas agree on the favorite, but the spreads are pretty far apart.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
STATS: Saints -9.9
Vegas: Saints -7
The reeling Bucs have lost four straight, which doesn’t bode well against a surging Saints team that has won five in a row since starting 0-2.
Baltimore at Tennessee
STATS: Titans -0.5
Vegas: Titans -4
Baltimore crushed Miami 40-0 last week and Tennessee needed OT to beat Cleveland, which are reasons STATS envisions this game being a little closer with the slight advantage going to the home team.
Indianapolis at Houston
STATS: Texans -8.08
Vegas: Texans -12.5
Deshaun Watson continues setting records and exceeding expectations.
Cincinnati at Jacksonville
STATS: Jaguars -2.37
Vegas: Jaguars -4.5
Prior to their bye last week, the Bengals knocked off the lowly Colts by a single point. Jacksonville crushed Indianapolis last week 27-0.
Group 3: Then there are games were STATS and Vegas don’t agree at all:
Atlanta at Carolina
STATS: Falcons -3.16
Vegas: Panthers -1
Vegas is still giving the nod to the Panthers after they surprisingly dealt Benjamin this week.
Arizona at San Francisco
STATS: 49ers -0.17
Vegas: Cardinals -2
San Francisco won’t throw Jimmy Garoppolo into the fire quite yet after nabbing him from New England at the trade deadline, so expect to see C.J. Beathard under center again.
Kansas City at Dallas
STATS: Cowboys -9.59
Biggest difference in spreads this week as STATS doesn’t see this one being very close at all.